The Physics Problem Policymakers Won’t Face
By John A. Nichols, Guest Contributor
After years of fighting Delaware’s energy subsidies, I’ve learned that some truths are tough for leaders to accept. I asked an AI, Claude, to challenge three ideas: wind and solar only succeed because of subsidies, reliable power needs dependable sources, and people need lots of energy to thrive. Claude couldn’t prove me wrong—the facts were clear.
Let’s look at subsidies. In 2010, taxpayers paid $56 for every megawatt-hour of wind energy but only about 64 cents for coal or gas. By 2022, renewables got $15.6 billion in federal aid, while fossil fuels got $3.2 billion, even though renewables produced less energy. If all subsidies ended, only dependable energy sources would survive. That’s not politics, it’s just how physics works.
The problem is basic: Solar doesn’t work at night. Wind doesn’t work when it’s calm. Germany saw this in November 2024, when renewables supplied just 30% of power for days; fossil fuels and imports filled the gap. Even with the best setup, renewables are unpredictable. We always need a backup.
Backup means either huge batteries or keeping fossil fuel plants ready. To fully rely on renewables, the UK would need enough battery storage to power the country for 27 days, which would take decades to build. The other option is to pay for both renewables and backup plants, so we pay twice.
This leads to the “missing money” problem. Subsidies let wind and solar sell electricity cheaply, which lowers prices and hurts traditional power plants. In my area, this caused a big issue: the 2027/28 auction for backup power fell short by 6,625 MW, even though prices were high. Old plants can’t make enough money to stay open.
Renewables also make the grid less stable. Unlike old power plants that help keep the grid steady, solar panels and wind turbines use electronics that can make the system more fragile and increase the risk of blackouts.
This matters because data centers—especially those running AI—are using more and more power and need reliable electricity all day, every day. Renewable energy’s ups and downs just won’t work for them. But current policies are making the grid weaker by supporting unreliable energy and not encouraging steady power sources. Then we wonder why new power plants aren’t being built.
The stakes are high. Poor countries use less than 500 kWh per person per year—just enough to run an American fridge all year. Richer nations use 4,000 to 6,000 kWh. That extra energy means hospitals, schools, and clean homes. Abundant energy is not just nice, it’s essential. No country has ever prospered with too little energy.
We have to choose stable power or current policies. Physics doesn’t bend. Solar and wind only work when the weather cooperates. Batteries can’t store enough. Backup plants need funding. These are facts, not opinions.
In the age of AI, both humans and machines need lots of affordable, reliable power. We can either have that or face blackouts and high costs. We can’t have both unstable energy and a stable grid. I asked Claude to prove me wrong. The AI couldn’t. Maybe leaders should ask themselves why.
John Nichols is a long-standing advocate for affordable and reliable electricity in Delaware.